Apple’s (AAPL, $189.96, up $1.80) knocking on the $200 door and some key events will determine whether Apple kicks in the door or goes away quietly again. Last time Apple tested $200 it was Christmas and the company was still riding the success of its iPhone debut as well as the holiday shopping season. It was all downhill after that when Apple announced earnings in January and lowered expectations for its coming quarter. The stock reached a low of $120 in late February and early March.

However, this was an important level of “support” and the stock has done nothing but gain 70 points in two months since then. Yeah, for those who thought Apple was going to be swallowed by the bears, those same bears have been covering their short positions like crazy over the past few months.

I believe the key to whether Apple stays above or below $200 will depend on what the company says and does at its annual Worldwide Developers Conference that starts June 9. Will Apple make a “surprise” announcement about an existing product or the possibility of a new one?

People “in the know” say Apple plans to begin selling its next-generation iPhone handset sometime on or after the third week of June. The new version of the iPhone will be compatible with 3G (third-generation) networks.

The other big news rumored to be is that Apple could be ready to enter the gaming business (to a degree). Word is the company has filed patents and is testing a “3D remote control system” for its Apple TV set-top box. It would be a knock-off of Nintendo’s Wii controller and would also have multi-touch technology.

Some of you have emailed me asking about the May 200 (APVET, $0.25, unchanged) and the June 200 (APVFT, $5.25, unchanged) call options. My advice is that you are playing with fire on the May 200 calls and we all know what can happen when you play with fire. The May calls are cheap but Apple would have to be at $200.25 by Friday for you to break even. With the June 200 calls, you’re still playing with fire but you can always get out if the stock fades at $200. You still might get burned just not as bad.

I can’t see a “gaming product” being launched at the conference but I can see the announcement of the updated iPhone unfolding. That and some news on iMacs and Apple’s operating software could help the stock “break on through to the other side”…

Rick Rouse
Rick@OptionsMentoring.com