Let’s see how this one turns out.

Citigroup (C, $8.89, down $0.63), whose stock has been in shambles recently, initiated coverage of AutoZone (AZO, $104.59, down $1.17) yesterday with a “Buy” rating on the stock. Citigroup blew its chance to close a deal for Wachovia (WB, $5.27, down $0.22) and when that fell through, its stock started collapsing. The nearly 50% drop in Citi since then has pushed the stock below $10 thus limiting our downside potential.

Here’s where it gets interesting.

Although Citigroup theoretically only has about $9 to go before it reaches $0, AutoZone has way more potential than a $9 move because it is a $100 stock. Now we have to determine if we are bullish or bearish.

The bulls will argue that AutoZone will benefit from a slowdown in the car industry because people will be fixing up there cars instead of buying new ones.

The bears will argue that AutoZone will fall just like many other retailers because of declining same-store sales. There’s even been “whispers” on Wall Street that some of the auto industries’ partners are looking for a “bailout bonus” and that could mean quite a few things.

The important thing to focus on is the chart for AutoZone. The stock made a run from $80 to $140 from mid-2006 to mid-2007. Since then it has bounced between $110 and $140 and even tested its all-time high this past summer.

It’s been a slow drip since the start of November as the stock has fallen over $20 a share and has broken major support levels. The $100 level will be the first major battle ground that the bears will try and overtake. If successful, they could take the bulls all the way down to $80.

The November 95 puts (AZOWS, $0.90, up $0.05) saw a few darts thrown their way but options traders really went after the December put options. Although the November 95’s had decent volume (300 contracts traded), traders weren’t really placing huge bets on strike prices below this level.

By contrast, the December 95 puts (AZOXS, $5.40, up $0.60) and the December 75 puts (AZOXU, $1.80, up $0.75) each had volume of nearly 3,000 contracts. There was scattered buying in the strike prices between 75 and 95 but these were the two that were getting smothered and covered. And it happens to coincide with what the chart is telling us.

Another morsel to munch on is the fact that the company will be reporting earnings on December 9. The December options expire 10 days later. Lottery option players may wish to gamble on the December 75 puts with an entry price of up to $2.00-$2.10.

If we can get a drop to $90 this week in AutoZone’s stock then these calls should double.

Rick Rouse
Rick@OptionsMentoring.com

Part of options trading has to do with “a gut feeling” and there are some trades you make based on what you really believe will happen. And there are some you don’t make because of that same feeling. For the past few months, we have done a lot of trades with financial stocks as we have bought call options on sell-offs and put options on rallies in hopes of riding the stock higher or lower.

Wachovia (WB, $1.84, down $8.16) was one of the stocks we played after it sold-off but for some reason I had a feeling Wachovia was in trouble and wasn’t going to bounce higher again. The stock was down 20% Friday and I mentioned the heavy option put buying as a reason not to go long. At the time, I didn’t think Wachovia would fall that hard, that fast but it has. The October 5 puts (WBVQ, $3.20, up $1.70) were going for 85 cents and hit a high of $4.50 when the stock traded as low as a penny. Wachovia shares did not open until much later in the trading session and when they did, the stock reached a low of $0.01. Wow.

The October 7.50 puts (WBVY, $5.70, up $3.20) stood at $1.50 on Friday when we went to press and they have also done well. The put option activity that was going on in Wachovia was a clear warning signal that something was up. In fact, it almost makes you wonder if Wall Street knew this was coming.

Most stocks go up when they are bought out. However, when the company’s not worth as much as its stock you will see these types of things. I was a big believer in Wachovia getting bought and that came true. Thankfully, I still did my research and knew about Wachovia’s trouble mortgage business.

Citigroup (C, $17.75, down $2.40) agreed to acquire Wachovia’s banking operations in a deal that was helped by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation. Citi got a great deal and will be able to expand its business while the FDIC could be responsible for loan losses. Sounds like a win-win for Citigroup as Wachovia’s shareholders are left holding the bag. Wicked game this Wall Street, huh?

Citigroup was actually positive at one point today but collapsed with the rest of the market when the $700 billion bailout failed. More on that Tuesday.

Rick Rouse
Rick@OptionsMentoring.com

Well, we all knew there would be drama when it came to getting the $700 billion banking bailout package approved by the government. Instead of fighting to get this thing done, both sides seem to be tripping over their own two feet to be the first in line to take credit for it. On Thursday, in what looked like a sure thing to get it passed, Republican lawmakers rejected the emergency financial rescue package last night after both parties pretty much had announced they were near an agreement on a deal. I guess that’s why they call it politics…

Anyway, as far as the market, we opened 150 points lower on the Dow this morning but as the day has progressed the market has rebounded but is still down 60 points. Part of the big drop at the open was news that the FDIC had seized Washington Mutual (WM, $0.16, down $1.53) on Thursday and then sold the assets to JPMorgan Chase (JPM, $44.30, up $0.84) for nearly $2 billion. Yeap, as Queen said it best…Another One Bites the Dust.

WaMu was the largest financial firm in history to collapse under the mortgage debt market and it shows just how serious the housing market has crippled our economy. Of course, the news isn’t earth-shattering by any means and it was almost excepted. WaMu joins the ever growing list of companies disappearing and I’m sure there’s more to come.

Wachovia (WB, $10.75, down $2.95) is getting a 20% haircut this morning as volume has hit 100 million shares. The options for Wachovia are also trading at a furious pace with huge positions being taken in the October 5 puts (WBVQ, $0.86, up $0.66, or 325%). Volume has swelled to 33,000 contracts thus far. The October 7.50 puts (WBVY, $1.50, up $1.05, or 233%) are also active. I’m not sure if Wachovia will trade down to $5 but there is growing open interest at the 2.5 through 10 October puts strike prices. We have traded Wachovia in the past but let’s stay on the sidelines with this one. Something doesn’t feel right with Wachovia anymore.

Change is good and and the way the market is acting it looks like it is smelling a deal. It still remains to be seen but we can almost bet the farm a deal will get done and that should help the market over the near-term.

Rick Rouse
Rick@OptionsMentoring.com

The market has been moving slightly higher this morning as Congress debates the $700 billion financial rescue package for the troubled credit markets. Wall Street is watching like a hawk to find out the details and there’s a lot riding on how this thing is set up. The Dow is up 22 to 11,038 after rising more than 120 points in the morning. The S&P 500 is trading higher by 2 points to 1,209, and the Nasdaq is in the green by 5 to 2,184.

Our buddy Bernanke urged Congress to get this package through in a hurry and warned “the implications for the broader economy could be quite adverse”…perhaps the biggest understatement of the year. Look, Congress will make this thing work, no matter what the consequences because they can’t announce this big of a package and then not have it go through quickly.

The government is taking some steps in the right direction but the fundamentals for many of the bank stocks and financial institutions are still weak. Yes, there could be a “cleansing” of the books but there will be more pain before it’s full steam ahead.

The dollar is also rebounding today, while gold stocks are taking a breather after Monday’s big advance. Some of the financial stocks we follow are getting to our targeted areas again:

Citigroup (C, $19.15, down $0.87)

Goldman Sachs (GS, $115.94, down $4.84)

Morgan Stanley (MS, $26.84, down $0.25)

Wachovia (WB, $15.04, down $1.56)

If we can get another 10%-20% drop it will be time to go long again on some of these names.

Rick Rouse
Rick@OptionsMentoring.com

Ditto. The market is up ANOTHER 400 points shortly after lunch and for the week the Dow is actually positive. In a week that will go down as one of the most volatile we have seen in quite some time, the market has rallied in stunning fashion on more good news that the government plans to wipe off billions and billions of bad debt off the banks books.

Another factor helping to propel the market higher is the new ban on short selling. I knew the short sellers would eventually get nabbed and today they are paying a heavy price. The SEC placed a temporary ban on the short-selling of nearly 800 financial stocks.

Short-selling is when you think a stock’s price will fall and you borrow the stock from someone else then sell the shares in the open market.

I haven’t even mentioned that today is “quadruple witching” day.

In fact the news is so good right now I can’t believe I waited this long to tell you about Morgan Stanley (MS, $29.60, up $7.05) and Wachovia (WB, $19.40, up $4.90).

Morgan went on a wild ride yesterday and by the afternoon the stock had dipped to a low of $11.70 after hitting a high $24.82. Stop and think about that for a minute. Morgan went from $24 to $12 to now nearly $30 in 24 hours…

I profiled the October 20 calls (MSJD, $10.90, up $3.70) which were at $5 and have now doubled and traded as high as $13.40. The January 25 calls (MSAE, $8.85, up $3.95) were at $4.00 and were over $10 earlier today. I don’t now much higher Morgan can go because the run-up has been huge. You could set stops at $10 for the October calls and easily get taken out due to volatility. You could set one a $7 to allow for some of this but also risk not taking a “double” off the table. Note: I always set stops at a double once the trade is officially over 100%.

Wachovia shares are up over 35% today and the longer-term call options we profiled are also doing well…real well. Wachovia actually OPENED at $23.86 and hit $24. I was pounding the table, beating the drum, and hollering at the top of my lungs that Wachovia was a serious buy-out candidate. The returns on the call options are also incredible.

The January 15 calls (WBAC, $5.80, up $2.48) were at $1.40 and have traded as high as $9.00. The January 20 calls (WBAD, $2.50, up $1.05) were at $0.65 and have traded as high as $4.50.

Obviously you should have closed some of these positions today to protect your profits and keep your bankroll growing. I’ll be wriiting articles here on the blog starting this weekend and my goal is to educate you on numerous option strategies and tidbits on the market. We might even do a mailbag…send me your questions.

Enjoy the rally but don’t fall in love it. As option traders we trade both up and down markets and this rally is being fueled by throwing gas on a fire. How long it burns remains to be seen.

Rick Rouse
Rick@OptionsMentoring.com

I profiled a Wachovia (WB, $10.80, down $0.71) option trade yesterday morning shortly after the market opened when the stock was at $10.10. If you are not an option trader or are not in a position to follow the market during the day then it is hard to really get a feel for the volatility that we are going through.

Not many people have the luxury of following the market so when you mention to other people that Wachovia dropped from $20 to $10 within a week, their jaw drops. The real story with Wachovia is that the stock has dropped from a 52-week high of $53 to $10. The massacre in the financials has a lot to do with “credit swaps”, pricing power, borrowing costs, blah-blah-blah. So who really knows what anything is worth?

As an option trader, I try and make sense of what areas are working and which ones aren’t. Wachovia hasn’t had any “bankruptcy” rumors and I think it is a name that can survive. However, it’s like trusting a fat kid with a cherry pie. Will he eat it or will he save it like you asked? It’s the chance you have to take.

The January 15 calls (WBAC, $1.75, down $0.65) were at $1.40 and the January 20 calls (WBAD, $0.85, down $0.15) were at $0.65 when I did the blog. I said at the time “now might be just the right time to play a quick bounce from here.” I only repeat myself because I want you to carefully read what is going on in the market right now, not to toot my own horn or anything like that. It’s hard to write a blog to try and get you a feel for the market…but I am trying.

The point is, look at where the entry prices were at the time of the article and where they CLOSED at yesterday. Before the close, you could have sold the 15’s for $2.40, up from an entry price of $1.40. The January 20 calls could have been sold at $1.00 after an entry point of 65 cents. That’s a 35% profit.

The market is giving us profits faster than the government is printing money. Take advantage of it.

Rick Rouse
Rick@OptionsMentoring.com

There has been a slew of takeover offers or ones in the works that I wanted to mention this morning. There may be one or two option trades worth researching but the easy money has already been made. However, it is still nice to see the M&A activity picking up. (All quotes are from Friday’s close)

SanDisk (SNDK, $17.64, up $4.18) had a huge day Friday on news that Samsung Electronics is considering an offer for the company. The Korean semiconductor giant already supplies flash memory chips to SanDisk and figures it is getting a great deal. There were twice as much action in the calls than puts and buyers and sellers of these contracts were targeting the 17.50 and 20 strike prices. The September 17.50 calls (SWQIW) closed at $1.30 while the October 20 calls (SWQJD) closed at $1.00.

UST (UST, $67.55, up $13.55) jumped 25% after Altria Group (MO, $20.95, up $0.29) appears set to acquire the chewing tobacco and wine maker for about $10 billion. More than 31,000 contracts of the September 60 calls (USTIM) were traded as they closed at $3.80. The October 70 calls (USTJN) traded nearly 30,000 contracts and could be a sleeper if we get a higher bid. They closed at 90 cents on Friday.

Lehman Brothers (LEH, $16.20, up $1.03) continues to look for a partner as it seeks to secure a much-needed capital infusion. Although Blackstone Group (BX, $16.43, down $0.31) and Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Company are said to be looking at parts of Lehman’s business model, I still think Lehman gets and oversees bid. The September 18 calls (LYHIL) closed at $1.05 and could see some action this morning. The October 20 calls (LYHJD) could also be worth a second look and are going for $1.10.

Aside from the M&A activity, don’t forget we still have a “half position” open on Citigroup (C, $19.07, up $0.77) and Wachovia (WB, $16.75, up $1.22). The Citigroup January 20 calls (CAD, $2.10) were profiled at $1.37 and we got 50% on the first half of our position. The Wachovia January 15 calls (WBAC, $4.40) were recommended at $3.00 on 8/20 and half was sold at $3.80 on 8/29.

Citigroup, Lehman and Wachovia should all get a pretty good pop at the open as the Dow looks poised to start the session with at least a triple-digit gain. It would be wise to probably sell the other half of our positions as soon as the market opens. I have a feeling people will be selling into the rally as we go.

Rick Rouse
Rick@OptionsMentoring.com

The market has just opened and the financial stocks look like they will be trading lower. I’ve been mentioning four trades that we have going and how they should be closed today. If you still believe these stocks may go higher then you could sell half of your positions and hold onto the rest.

The four trades we looked at involved Citigroup (C, $18.86, down $0.22), Wachovia (WB, $15.67, down $0.32), Fannie Mae (FNM, $7.38, down $0.57) and Freddie Mac (FRE, $4.82, down $0.46)

The Citigroup January 20 calls (CAD, $1.95, down $0.10) were at $1.37 and had posted gains of 50% before this morning’s slight decline. The Wachovia January 15 calls (WBAC, $3.80, down $0.20) were recommended at $3.00 and should do well as Wachovia remains a buyout candidate.

The Fannie May January 5 calls (NJWAA, $4.00, down $0.10) were profiled at $2.40 and are have posted gains of 70%+. The Freddie Mac January 5 calls (FREAA, $1.85, down $0.15) were profiled at $1.20 and are showing a 50% gain.

Again, I’d close half of each position ahead of the holiday weekend. The market is closed on Monday so I’ll be back Tuesday with some fresh ideas.

Rick Rouse
Rick@OptionsMentoring.com

Citigroup (C, $18.80, up $0.68) and Wachovia (WB, $15.73, up $1.18) continue to rally today as the Dow is up an impressive 171 points shortly after lunch. There’s no specific news concerning these two companies, they are just along for today’s ride. As we head towards the end of the week it’s good to see that some of our trades are going to be huge winners before the holiday weekend.

We will close either close them on Friday and simply look for more trades next Tuesday or we will sell half of our positions and let the rest ride. It all depends. Don’t forget we get the Personal Income and Outlays and the Consumer Sentiment reports tomorrow and they will either help extend the market gains or stop us out of our trades.

The Citigroup January 20 calls (CAD, $2.00, up $0.30) were at $1.37 and are up 50%. The Wachovia January 15 calls (WBAC, $4.00, up $0.70) were profiled at $3.00 so they are up 33%. Set stops on the Citigroup calls at $1.75. For Wachovia, set stops at $3.50.

These trades would have shown even bigger gains had we played the September or October option calls but the risk would have been much greater had these stocks headed the other way. I’ll provide another update before Friday’s closing bell.

Rick Rouse
Rick@OptionsMentoring.com

The “timing is everything” quote couldn’t have had more meaning today with a few of our trades. The bears had thoughts on taking the financial sector lower until the bulls stepped in and took over. The earlier blog this morning couldn’t have come at a better time although it’s a little too early to tell if the trades will pay off big.

To start, there were a few trades I mentioned this morning involving Citigroup (C, $17.49, up $0.30), Lehman Brothers (LEH, $13.73, up $0.66) and Wachovia (WB, $14.90, up $0.60). All three stocks had a volatile session and were all over the map providing traders with plenty of good entry points.

The Citigroup January 20 calls (CAD, $1.52, up $0.03) traded as low as $1.30 and were a nickle off from our target entry price of $1.25. Some of you may have pulled the trigger at $1.30 which was close enough and are now looking at a 15% gain. You could set stops at your entry price if the volatility is too much for you to bear.

Trading Lehman Brothers could be like catching a falling knife, eventually, because the “bankruptcy” rumors are flying around this company like pigeons on a boardwalk. Lehman could be in serious trouble unless it sells some of its assets which is being considered. I said the January 20 calls (LYHAD, $1.80, up $0.25) were “mouth-watering” at $1.40 and low and behold, they were. The calls made a nice 30% gain by the end of the day. We are targeting the $2.00 level as an exit for a quick 40% profit and a stop of $1.60 gets you a 15% return.

Wachovia shares rebounded 6% from the morning blog after news broke that a private real estate company had bought some of the bank’s troubled land and construction loans. The January 15 calls (WBAC, $3.50, up $0.20) were trading for $3.00 and ended the day 17% higher than our entry price. The stock really got some legs after the news and was looking at busting through $15 before the final bell sounded. If the stock can back to the $17-$18 range over the next week or so, we could be looking at 50%+ returns.

And finally, there’s Yahoo (YHOO, $19.17, down $0.25) which continued lower throughout the rest of the day. The October 20 calls (YHQJD, $1.30, down $0.20) and the January 22.50 calls (YHQAX, $1.35, down $0.10) provided us good entry points today because…after the closing bell Yahoo announced an Internet-TV deal with Intel (INTC, $23.39, down $0.20) that will provide users a new and unique way of using the Internet.

The Widget Channel could be Yahoo’s wild card that saves the company’s stock. Intel’s chip, called Intel Media Processor 3100, will start appearing in televisions, set-top boxes and other television-connected gizmos as early as next year. Yahoo will then bring the Internet to TV by using bite-sized snippets, or widgets, rather than the whole Internet.

The technology sounds exciting although the news did not do much for Yahoo’s stock in after-hours trading. The shares are up only two cents but Yahoo should open higher on Thursday after the talking heads pump up the news.

Rick Rouse
Rick@OptionsMentoring.com